What the crisis in Kazakhstan and Ukraine tells us about Vladimir Putin – Orange County Register

This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent forces to Kazakhstan to support the autocratic government of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev amid violent protests that broke out over energy prices.

At the same time, thousands of Russian troops are now massing on the border with Ukraine – an escalation that has raised serious fears of a military invasion on par with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The Biden administration met with Russian officials this week in an effort to defuse the standoff in Ukraine, but their efforts were futile. Moscow is relentlessly seeking an agreement from NATO not to expand its reach east into Ukraine and end security cooperation with Ukraine – proposals that the top US diplomat called “nothing”. beginnings”.

To be sure, Russia’s actions – individually and collectively – over Kazakhstan and Ukraine are part of Putin’s broader effort to reassert Russia’s dominance over the former Soviet Union states, while undermining the actual and perceived strength of NATO.

And make no mistake, Putin is gaining ground in his quest.

Putin’s strides are owed to the fact that the United States and NATO lack a unified strategy for dealing with non-NATO states that are part of the former Soviet Republic – which includes Ukraine and Kazakhstan – which the former National Security Adviser John Bolton noted. a recent piece for the Wall Street Journal.

Indeed, earlier this week the US said it would not intervene in the crisis in Kazakhstan, and the State Department went no further than calling for “restraint by both the administration and the protesters”. At the same time, the true extent of military and economic support that the United States and NATO are willing to provide to Ukraine – in the event of a full-scale invasion or the absence of Russia – remains unclear.

Last month, President Joe Biden warned Putin that an invasion of Ukraine would lead to harsh economic sanctions, disruption of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and Ukraine receiving defensive capabilities from the other side. West.

While it appears Biden is drawing a ‘red line’, Putin stands firm and continues to demand assurances that NATO will not expand eastward into Ukraine – perhaps because Putin is testing totalitarianism. president, or because he has little reason to believe Biden will follow through fully on his threats.

The US has not dramatically increased military aid to Ukraine since Mr. Biden took office, and in May the administration waived sanctions on Nord Stream 2. And so far, Moscow has clearly remained have not been deterred by any economic sanctions imposed on them.

Moreover, the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August – which weakened America’s standing on the world stage, was also a sign of the Biden administration’s reluctance to get involved in the wars. future foreign wars – have clearly encouraged Putin to behave more forcefully.

Whether Putin actually gets involved in Ukraine is still undetermined. Some argue that since Kazakhstan – a neighboring autocratic state – has fallen into chaos, Putin may be more likely to take aggressive actions to weaken Ukraine, which is striving for democracy. and is trying to integrate with the West.

In the end, I mostly agree with the argument of the likes of former national security official Fiona Hill, who said that the situation in Kazakhstan most likely “fueled Putin’s desire to do something” in Ukraine. .

However, I do not see Russia’s involvement in Kazakhstan as a sign that Putin’s influence is waning. Although the uprising in Kazakhstan against an allied Russian government is not an ideal scenario for Russia, Putin could – as I expected he would – use the situation in Kazakhstan to his advantage. for Ukraine and with other non-NATO former Soviet states.

In particular, Putin could point to Moscow’s decisive intervention in Kazakhstan as proof that Russia is a more reliable military partner than NATO and the United States.

Putin is clearly working to achieve this goal. On Thursday, the Russian president announced the success of Russia’s mission to stabilize Kazakhstan, announcing that the Russian military had “completed their mission” and was preparing to return home. Earlier in the week, he promised other pro-Russian countries, formerly the Soviet Union, that they would receive fierce Russian support in similar cases.