The chances for the NCAA tournament of Kentucky Basketball suddenly look better

After his team lost to Georgia on Saturday, Kentucky gave Kentucky twice as many head-scratch losses as Quad-1 wins and the Wildcats were likely left on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble with just six games left in the regular season, John had Calipari a decent success reason for hope.

“We have the kind of schedule where we’re going to win games and we’re going to be fine,” he said with at least five quad-1 chances left on the table. “If you beat those teams, you’re fine. These will be important games for us, but we have them. It’s not that we don’t have other chances to get this right. This is what we do.”

To that end, Wednesday was a perfect night for Kentucky. Most notably, the undermanned Cats of Calipari went to Starkville and picked up a Quad 1 win, 71-68, from a top 50 Mississippi State team that had won five straight games to get their own conversation. But then just about every other useful domino that could fall in Britain’s favor fell as well. In fact, the Wildcats now have three Q1 wins on their hands as Texas A&M (which lost at the Rupp Arena last month) beat Arkansas to move up to 31st in the NCAA NET rankings. If the Aggies get into the top 30, it will be a Quad 1 win for Kentucky.

Other helpful events on Wednesday: Tennessee beat No. 1 Alabama to stay in the top five at the net and avoid coming to Lexington on Saturday on a three-game losing streak; Florida rode Ole Miss to remain in the top 50 and give Britain another Quad 1 chance when it visits Gainesville next week – which should be an easier task after Gators star Colin Castleton defeated the broken the hand of the rebels; and fellow bubble team Oregon lost to Washington at No. 122. After all, most bracketologists who have updated their projections now have the Cats in the field of 68.

That remains a weak position, but the schedule Calipari mentioned means his team could be doing much better with their NCAA tournament hopes over the next few days. Completing a season sweep by the Volunteers on Saturday could be enough, or a combination of a win in Florida on Wednesday and a home win over Auburn’s top-30 next weekend. The point is that despite a frustrating season after Wednesday, Kentucky (17-9, 8-5 SEC) are much closer to avoiding total disaster of missing the dance for the second time in three years.

Understanding the urgency of adding wins when creating resumes, Calipari revitalized an old catchphrase from his UMass days this week.

“The biggest thing I’ve talked to them about is refusing to lose,” he said. “Just refuse to lose. You may be running out of time, but just refuse to lose.”

For the third straight game, Kentucky struggled to a win with guards CJ Fredrick (ribs) and Sahvir Wheeler (ankles) out. Calipari likes to point out that in their worst loss of the season to South Carolina, the Cats were two starters behind for most of the season. This time they found a way to beat a good team on the street, despite Fredrick and Wheeler sitting and point guard Cason Wallace missing 12 of his 13 shots.

“We got everything out in front of us,” said Calipari. “There are a lot of teams cheering against us because people don’t want to play us in this tournament. I have a good team. I’m just trying to convince her.”

It’s an easier sale after that performance in Starkville. And here’s the thing about living in a bubble: your co-workers aren’t pretty either. Extreme pessimists from Kentucky, who have at various points declared that there is no way these deeply flawed Wildcats will make the NCAA tournament, should take a closer look at the teams they compete with.

Most bracket gurus agree that these teams, ranked in current NET ranking order, are in the bubble: No. 23 Boise State, No. 40 Kentucky, No. 42 Memphis, No. 44 Mississippi State, No. 45 North Carolina, No. 49 Oregon, No. 55 New Mexico, No. 63 USC, No. 64 Clemson and No. 77 Wisconsin.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that A&M ultimately moves up at least one more spot and the Cats have three Quad 1 wins and one Quad 4 loss. How does this stack up? Well, let’s see:

Only Wisconsin has more Quad 1 wins (and no terrible losses), but the Badgers are also by far the lowest bubble team on the NET. Everyone on the list has at least one heavy loss except for Wisconsin, UNC (which has no Q1 wins) and Mississippi State (which Kentucky just beat on the road). Clemson is one game outside of first place in the weak ACC but has only two quad 1 wins and three quad 3s and 4 losses. Compared to the competition, Kentucky has perhaps the best chance of getting into the field. Win three of their last five regular season games and the Cats would be in fine form.

Notre Dame finished in the top four last season despite a 2-8 Quad 1 record – and won two games in the tournament. Wichita State was in the First Four with just two Quad 1 wins in 2021, albeit in a COVID-19-cut year. Syracuse ranked No. 8 in 2019 with a 3-9 Quad 1 record. So, no, a limping Kentucky team that’s actually won four of their last five away games isn’t dead yet.

Now tied for fourth in the SEC with Auburn, the Wildcats are aiming for a top-four finish in the league tournament that would mean a bye and avoiding potential heavy losses there. Finishing in the top four in Nashville puts you straight into more high-value winning opportunities and only requires three wins to earn the tournament trophy.

“We have to get healthy,” said Calipari after a big win on Wednesday. But in the meantime, “just refuse to lose.”

(Photo by Oscar Tshiebwe: Chris McDill / Icon Sportswire via AP)