The biennial event of a nationally significant American election is upon us with the US Midterms. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for election on Tuesday. Joe Biden is so concerned he went campaigning last week and ramped up the rhetoric.
The Democrats are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Upper House is on the brink. That (or rather the split government it will create) is bad news for investors, according to Unhedged’s Rob Armstrong. FT columnist Janan Ganesh blames the voters.
Would you like to know more? This Thursday, FT journalists Edward Luce, Rana Foroohar and James Politi will join veteran commentator Norm Ornstein for an exclusive event evaluating US interim results. Register today for free and you can pre-submit questions for our panel.
You can also subscribe to the Swamp Notes newsletter, which does an excellent job examining the intersection of money and power in American politics and is currently free to read.
across the atlantic, the COP27 meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt provides a focus for climate change news in the coming days (and weeks). More than 100 world leaders will attend, including Rishi Sunak after finding time in his schedule but not King Charles.
Again, you can get more Findings from the FT. Starting Monday, FT Live will host a series of in-person, virtual and hybrid discussions featuring leading sustainability thinkers and senior FT journalists. Each will complement the themes set out in the Presidency’s program for the day. Register your interest here.
Inflation is the main focus of economic news this week with CPI and PPI updates from the US, China, Germany and Japan. Regardless of the US numbers, Fed Chair Jay Powell made it absolutely clear in his comments last week that his team will do whatever it takes to drive inflation out of the economy. The consensus is for a 0.7 percent increase in the US monthly figure to create an 8.1 percent annual figure.
The Bank of England’s bleak forecasts last Thursday that Britain is entering its longest recession since World War Two set the tone for this week’s big British economic news: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP on Friday. This is expected to show a decline of about 0.2 percent from the previous quarter.
With UK high street sales falling and rumors of a prolonged recession, UK retail is not in a good position. But this week could bring some calm – and we’re not just talking about it Return of free coffee at Waitrose.
Marks and Spencer will present its first results on Wednesday under new management after former CEO and CEO Steve Rowe retired over the summer. His successor, Stuart Machin, has already made his point on accelerating the store’s overhaul and redoubling cost-cutting efforts, so the focus will likely be on ongoing trade. Rival Next stuck to its full-year guidance last week after sustained sales in early autumn. M&S investors — who haven’t received a dividend since November 2019 — will hope Machin does, too.
WHSmith profits are expected to rebound as the world travel industry recovers from Covid lockdowns. Travel revenue, much of which comes from airport deals, was already well above pre-pandemic levels when it was last updated in early September. Meanwhile, there were few signs of a slowdown in airport-Dufry group Dufry’s quarterly results last week.
The main constraint is capacity limits at major airports, particularly London Heathrow. No doubt there will be more discussion on Monday when Ryanair reports its first half-year figures. Low-cost airlines like Ryanair are having to adapt to the end of low-cost travel, and the response has been to try to take business away from the more expensive airlines.
The end of the season tech results news is likely to continue the gloomy sentiment. Lyft, which reported Monday, announced significant job cuts last week, the second round of layoffs in recent months. Lyft isn’t the only tech company tightening its belt, but things aren’t looking good for ride-hailing service, a smaller competitor to Uber, which is also selling its vehicle services business.
Elsewhere we have a number of updates for drugmakers. BioNTech, reporting Monday, is among several Covid-19 vaccine makers that have begun raising the price of their vaccines amid concerns about falling demand in 2023. Airfinity, a health data analysis group, is forecasting Covid vaccine sales to fall by about a fifth to $47 billion next year. There are also concerns about AstraZeneca, which will release third-quarter figures on Thursday after the nasal version of its Covid vaccine failed in trials. Better news is expected from German pharmaceutical and chemical group Bayer, whose figures will be released on Tuesday.
Read the full calendar for next week here.
https://www.ft.com/content/987dfad0-90c3-45af-a613-1946c0b2a447 Live News Updates: The coming week