La Niña winter now 75% likely – what it means in Texas

through: Nick BanninNextstar Media Wire



AUSTIN (KXAN) – The mid-October El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update from the Climate Prediction Center and Columbia Climate School indicates an even higher probability of a third straight La Niña winter, increasing the odds over the previous one increases forecasts.

A month ago the chances of La Niña holding in the winter (December-February) were 65%, but the latest forecast rate has risen to 75%.

What Does a La Niña Mean for Central Texas?

La Niña is a climate pattern resulting from cooler than normal temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can impact the entire world.

A La Niña winter typically brings with it a warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal period in the south, with the north tending to be wetter and colder.

Typical La Nina winter in North America
Typical La Niña Winter in North America (NOAA/CPC)

When does La Nina end?

La Niña is preferred to end in the February-April period, and a neutral ENSO pattern is still preferred, but the likelihood of La Niña continuing at least part of the spring season has increased.

October 2022 ENSO Outlook (CPC)
October 2022 ENSO Outlook (CPC)

The CPC ENSO forecast is broken down into overlapping three-month periods:

  • La Niña odds continue in January March are up to ~58% now (up from ~53% a month ago).
  • The chances of a La Niña February-April are now around 44% (up from ~38% a month ago).
  • The likelihood of a La Niña spring March May are up to 26% now (up from ~22% a month ago).

NOAA is expected to release its 2022-2023 Winter Outlook next week. We’ll bring you the expectations as soon as they’re announced. La Niña winter now 75% likely – what it means in Texas

Grace Reader

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