Gas prices have risen for the third week in a row, a fall is possible this week

(GasBuddy) For the third straight week, the nation’s average gas price rose 13.8 cents from the previous week to $3.92 a gallon Monday, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 11 million individual price reports for over 150,000 gas stations across the country have been compiled . The national average is 22.5 cents higher than a month ago and 67.0 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national median price of diesel is up 18.0 cents over the past week to stand at $5.04 a gallon.

“With OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, we’ve seen oil prices surge by 20%, which is the main reason the national average has risen for the third straight week,” said Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy. “Some of the refining issues that have caused prices to rise in the West and Great Lakes appear to be improving, with prices in those two regions likely to fall even with OPEC’s decision as the fall in wholesale prices offsets the increase due has to production cut. But where gas prices haven’t skyrocketed due to refining problems, they will rise a total of 10 to 30 cents due to the surge in oil, and some areas are certainly already seeing the jump. Right now I don’t expect much improvement in prices for most of the country, with the exception of California and the Great Lakes, with downside likely in the coming days and weeks.”

OIL PRICES
After a significant rebound following OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production, oil prices have cooled slightly, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 48 cents to $92.16 a barrel in early Monday trade, up from about 8 USD per barrel from the previous week and roughly USD 14 per barrel equates to higher than two weeks ago. Brent crude saw similar moves, falling 60 cents in early trade to $97.32 a barrel, but much more sharply than last Monday’s $89.55 a barrel level. While the President has indicated there will still be some oil outflow from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, current levels are now over 200 million barrels lower than a year ago and could put the nation at greater risk should Russia’s War against Ukraine will go on for a significant time in the future.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of US rigs fell by 3 rigs to 762 in the past week, up 229 rigs from a year ago. The Canadian rig count increased by 2 rigs to 215, up 48 rigs from a year ago.

OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS
Crude inventories fell 1.4 million barrels last week and were kept at normal levels for this time of year by continued SPR releases, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report. Meanwhile, the SPR fell 6.2 million barrels to 416.4 million, down nearly a third from a year ago. Gasoline inventories plunged 4.7 million barrels and are now nearly 8% below the average for this time of year. Gasoline stocks in the Gulf fell the most, nearly 4 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand rose 640,000 barrels per day to 9.47 million, a figure that is likely overstated compared to actual demand given how complicated moves before and after Hurricane Ian are. Refinery utilization rose 0.7% to 91.3%, with both gasoline and distillate production rising. Total shipments, including SPR, are down almost 12% year-over-year.

FUEL REQUIREMENTS
According to GasBuddy demand data, powered by the Pay with GasBuddy card, US retail gasoline demand fell 0.3% last week (Sun-Sat). Broken down by PADD region, demand increased by 0.3% in PADD 1, fell by 0.5% in PADD 2, fell by 2.8% in PADD 3, rose by 2.5% in PADD 4 and in PADD 5 by 1.5%.

GAS PRICE DEVELOPMENT
The most common US gasoline price motorists encounter was $3.29 a gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $3.49, $3.39, $3.19 and $3.59, which are the rounds down five most common prices.

The average US gas price is $3.59 a gallon, up 10 cents from last week and about 33 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of gas stations in the country average $6.12 per gallon, while the bottom 10% use an average of $3.12 per gallon.

The states with the lowest average prices: Georgia ($3.21), Mississippi ($3.25) and Texas ($3.25).

The states with the highest average prices: California ($6.31), Alaska ($5.53) and Oregon ($5.50).