From pandemic to endemic – Orange County Register

Data on COVID-19 cases and mortality suggest that we are entering a “new normal” where infections not only decrease, but also lead to fewer deaths.

The appearance of the Omicron variant in early December last year caused the number of cases to spike. On December 1, the 7-day moving average of the total number of cases per day nationwide was 86,000. By January 15 of this year, just 45 days later, that number had exploded to 792,000. This is more than three times higher than the previous peak recorded in January last year of 251,000 cases.

But there is a hugely important difference between the peak of 251,000 daily cases on January 8 last year versus the peak of 792,000 cases on January 15 of this year. Back on January 8, the mortality rate (20 days later) for cases was 1.30%. That compares with a much lower death rate of 0.30% a year later when cases peaked at 792,000.

In fact, the death rate for cases has plummeted since the Omicron variant debuted in early December. On December 5, when the first case of Omicron was reported in the US, the rate COVID-19 deaths are 2.10%. As Omicron raged and bark counts spiked after December 5, the mortality rate steadily dropped to the most recent 0.30%.

Assuming a 0.30% mortality rate, that means the average probability of dying from COVID after being infected is now less than 1 in 300. At the beginning of 2021, when the mortality rate is 1.3 %, the probability of dying from COVID is about 4 in 300. Apparently, despite the highly contagious nature of the Omicron variant, it is much less lethal than earlier stages of the coronavirus.

Any death is a personal tragedy. But the most recent COVID 0.30 death rate is bringing us closer to a flu (common flu) death rate of 0.14% for 2017-18 (61,000 deaths). to 45 million cases) and 0.10% in 2018-19 (34,000 deaths down to 35 million). This is further evidence that pandemics are becoming more common. That means that while COVID is unlikely to be eliminated completely, it will become more like seasonal flu.

Better news: Since peaking at 792,000 cases on January 8, the 7-day average of caseloads has dropped rapidly to 263, 000 on February 7. That shows the number of deaths attributed to it. COVID even less in the future.

As we look to that future, there are other findings that Chapman researchers at the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research have discovered about Omicron variation, specifically socioeconomic factors. help explain it. Over the past two years, we have found that those explanatory factors have shifted markedly in the two-year trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. That study, published in the Journal of Bioeconomy, COVID Economics and the Social Science Research Network, found that when COVID first emerged in early 2020, states had higher densities. states are the hardest hit. As COVID spread, density became so less important that it ceased to be a factor. But there is growing evidence that government interventions – the extent to which states use interventions such as closing schools and workplaces, limiting the size of public gatherings, Travel restrictions and testing requirements – increasingly important in reducing COVID-19 case and death rates.

However, since last July, when the Delta and Omicron variants shifted COVID-19 into another phase of the pandemic, we have found that government interventions no longer have a measurable effect. in reducing COVID-19 case and death rates. In fact, the only two variables that have emerged to have a significant effect on statewide COVID-19 morbidity and mortality as of mid-2021 are age and vaccination rates. States with a larger proportion of the population over the age of 65 were found to have significantly higher COVID mortality rates.

Specifically, for every one percent increase in the proportion of people over the age of 65, the number of deaths from COVID since last July has increased by about 6 people per 100,000 of the population.

But the single most important variable currently explaining the variation in the state’s COVID death rates is the state’s average vaccination rate. We found that an average increase in immunization coverage of one percentage point resulted in a 3.4% decrease in mortality (less than 3.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants of a state).