Champions League best bets tips: Bayern and PSG show value ahead of mighty Round of 16 clash

The Champions League finally returns after an unusual layoff due to the 2022 FIFA World Cup. This year’s competition will be harder to assess than anything we’ve ever seen. The number of games remaining in almost every league and the unnerving fatigue of so many of these players must be taken into account.

We will go to the pairings that I believe have the best value and the easiest outcome to predict.

AC Milan-Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs and Milan are two teams that have struggled since the 2023 restart. Milan have won just twice in nine games in all competitions in 2023 and Spurs have been fickle, beating Manchester City and then being beaten by Leicester in the space of a week.

This duel has many injuries between the two goalkeepers of the France national team who are out in Hugo Lloris for Spurs and Mike Maignan (Milan). Spurs midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur tore his ACL last weekend in addition to other missing limbs. As for Milan, Zlatan IbrahimoviC will not be ready alongside Ismaël Bennacer but defender Fikayo Tomori will return for the Italian giants.

Milan recently switched to a 3-5-2 formation after conceding nine goals in two games against Sassuolo and Lazio. With this line-up, they have only conceded one of two games against Inter and Turin. However, Inter had a multitude of chances and dominated most of this game. Bear in mind that rumor has it that Stefano Pioli is set to bench the fine athletes in Alexis Saelemaekers at right-back for Davide Calabria and Malick Thiaw at centre-back for Simon Kjær. These are physical and positional demotions given the type of form the ladder is in.

Antonio Conte knows Pioli very well with a 7-3-1 record against his clubs. I trust Conte and his experience, albeit shaky, in this competition for Pioli, who has had tactical problems throughout the new year. Going up against his kryptonite might be too much for the Rossoneri and I made them bow to Spurs.

Spurs to Advance -165.

Rafael Leão and Theo Hernandez are a great link and can uncover the Spurs backline in addition to the threats posed by Son Heung-Min, Harry Kane and Ivan Perišić for Milan. I expect a couple of goals at the San Siro.

Over 2.5 goals in the first leg -105.

The odds are updated live and come from BetMGM.

PSG Bayern Munich

This encounter has produced some of the most entertaining football matches in the competition in recent years. It comes as a surprise that Kylian Mbappe has joined PSG’s squad for the first leg despite initial reports saying he would be absent. Oh, and his teammate named Lionel Messi will make that case too.

Bayern have been developing very well in league play lately and with all the attacking talent at PSG I can see the two teams scoring four goals together in this game. Both teams have a team total of over 1.5 goals at equal odds. With those numbers in mind, here are some goals I envision:

Over 3.5 goals +125 for the first leg.

Bayern have shown they’re getting back on track with 11 goals in their last three games and PSG have a weakened defense and midfield. I expect Bayern to put the pressure on and create a lot of chances. PSG conceded three goals against Monaco at the weekend, so the weakness is there. My favorite bet for stage one:

Bayern total goals over 1.5 -110.

Benfica Bruges

I don’t want to bet too much, I expect more goals in the first leg.

Benfica will most likely advance to the next round (-400). Brugge surprised the competition and only conceded four goals in the group stage, allowing them to deliver a tough game for Benfica. There is too much juice on one side to advance here so my advice would be to parry Benfica with another team like Spurs or even a Bayern/PSG who are still at -175 and +125. Bayern-Benfica has you at -104 and PSG-Benfica at +181.

Borussia Dortmund Chelsea

Chelsea is the biggest mystery of the tournament. Chelsea did relatively well in their group, with Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter referencing games. Their league form has been terrible and yet people can’t stop drawing parallels to their last two UCL-winning sides. Low league with a talented side and an interim manager at the helm. However, this new owner injected a record amount of money in January and expects a smooth transition into Europe’s biggest competition. The Blues have a win in eight games in 2023 and Dortmund are in fantastic form with wins in all six games this calendar year.

Two Dortmund home games in the group stage ended with less than 2.5 goals. The only game that ended was a 3-0 win over Copenhagen. I expect this first game will score fewer points as Chelsea don’t finish well and Dortmund play well. However, I see Chelsea score a goal 1 goal exactly (+150). It won’t be a productive performance, but I can see the audience doing one.

I think Chelsea moving up -160 is a bit juicy for a volatile squad, but if the Blues escape Germany with a result it bodes well for a return to Stamford Bridge, where a young Dortmund side are playing with that kind of of atmosphere must be finished .

Tips for next week’s matchups

Frankfurt-Naples

Napoli advances -250.

Frankfurt will prove incredibly tough as they have since the start of last season but Napoli’s overall quality will be too much. Expect some overs to be hit in this tie.

Liverpool Real Madrid

Madrid advance -160.

Earlier iteration of last year’s final, these two underperformed in 2023 as well but Real Madrid have a more rounded squad top to bottom so I like them.

Inter Milan Porto

Postage in advance +125.

Inter have incredibly shaky defenses at times and have gotten next to no performance from Romelu Lukaku. Inter can beat anyone on a good day but the drama in this dressing room makes -175 a bit high for progression. Porto at +125 to promotion is a nice play considering their experience at that level.

RB Leipzig-Manchester City

Lots of drama surrounding Manchester City and they are overwhelming favorites at -700. Does Leipzig shock the world and give the favorites an early exit? I won’t be touching futures for this matchup, nor do I like anything nine days into a match to place a single bet.

Champions League Future

Much like Villarreal last year, I think we’ll see another surprise team making a deep run. As for the favourites, Manchester City tops the list for BetMGM with odds of +185. City are the clear favorites again and this year there is even more controversy surrounding the club. Disagreements in the dressing room between manager Pep Guardiola and some players have been reported, as we saw as a result of full-back Jo’s loan dealAo Cancelo to FC Bayern Munich, plus the financial investigation of clubs with the Premier League.

There is no rest in Manchester at the moment, apart from being relegated to league form. I’m not sure why City have been given such a big gap to other clubs in the futures market.

PSG and Bayern are the top favorites in this competition but they are relatively close in terms of future odds and obviously advancing either side would significantly reduce that number although the next clash is unknown. Take Bavaria +550 or PSG +750 now before it’s too late.

Naples at +1000 is my “dark horse”. Napoli deserve a lot of praise for their massive lead in league play. It will have the advantage of having more rest between games during the season. As well as dominating his group in the fall, Napoli have everything you need to put on a deep run. Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are among the best duos in Europe, they can easily decide a draw on their own. For me, Napoli have the best odds to go that long and have all the ingredients to win in Europe. Strong at home, modern style of play, high-end talent and a manager who has seen difficult moments in Luciano Spalletti to drive this ship.

Champions League winner odds

Arsenal, Barcelona, ​​​​Juventus and Manchester United. You won’t find any bigger names in this competition.

Europa League winner odds

Arsenal (+400) are so fantastic and despite some poor form it won’t affect my assessment of them as a squad. I love their starting XI and manager Mikel Arteta was phenomenal. My request has priority. This is a competition they can win but if this Premier League chase continues at speed why risk risking stars for injury during this competition? I expect some kind of squad management that will eventually make Arsenal suffer. For that reason alone I consider the bet as a favorite to be dangerous.

Unlike Arsenal, Xavi’s Barcelona squad is strong and has a healthier lead in La Liga. Barcelona’s defense has been strong all season and I expect that to remain the case in this competition. In addition, Barcelona have Robert Lewandowski in attack. This is a tournament he should dominate. Barcelona are +450 because their opponent is the third favourite, Manchester United (+800). If Barca progress, the chances will shrink.

Barcelona (+450) are my pick to win the Europa League based on overall talent and La Liga is increasingly going in his favour. Also, -185 to advance against United is a nice number to play with another future team to progress which I mentioned above.

As for Manchester United and Juventus, the sides have been solid defensively of late but the Bianconeri’s inconsistency and pragmatism will end up costing them against the top teams in this competition. United have made great strides on the pitch but there are too many holes for them to lift that title over Barcelona. The matchup will ultimately be the downfall.

Let me know below who you think will win these competitions!

(Photo by Kingsley Coman: Michaela Rehle / AFP via Getty Images)